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Technology Stocks : The New Qualcomm - a S&P500 company

QCOM 176.12

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3:59 PM EST

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To: 100cfm who wrote (6497)	2/15/2000 3:07:00 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) of 13582

Tero used to argue that Nokia would produce B grade CDMA handsets and keep their good technology for GSM. That never seemed sensible to me. To develop a market leading position in CDMA they would need to produce leading phones. It is absolutely not intentional that Nokia has delayed their entry to the CDMA market with bumbling [though some delays would result from having limited R&D people and budgets and some timing issues - don't want to go too early or too late]. They cannot slow the development of CDMA one iota. All they can do is take part or not. They are already an also-ran in CDMA. They have to become the market leader. Yes, Ericy could easily take a year or two to come out with a phone. Motorola took longer than that. Motorola had a shambles. Making really good CDMA ASICS is not a simple thing like a round of golf. Meanwhile, I was surprised to see that there are now about 42 subscriber equipment CDMA licensees. There were only 26 last time I looked a couple of years ago. That means there is a LOT of competition in subscriber devices. Making bad ones is not a good strategy for ANY company. The most Nokia could do with that strategy is contaminate their good brand name and their GSM range. CDMA is bigger than everyone now. Bigger than Qualcomm. It used to be that mobile CDMA breached the laws of physics [according to a Stanford physicist]. Now CDMA is a law of the universe. A bit like the Web was the creation of people, but it is now in the process of becoming a living entity in It's own right, outside the control of people. Still part of and symbiotic with people, but off and running on It's own account. Don't try to get in the way! I suspect It would be quite vicious and determined to protect Itself. Mqurice PS: Thanks for the PM comments Bux! I'll think about it. I'm just having a little dabble here today.

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