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Non-Tech : PPD (Pre-paid Legal Services) on the move
PPD 47.280.0%Dec 8 4:00 PM EST

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To: Michael Burry who wrote (766)2/15/2000 7:15:00 AM
From: SC   of 801
 
<<Reading this is an art more than a science, but IMO your read is incorrect. >>
I admit that I am not very good at it, yet.
I wish I could take your words but I am not convinced by you, so far.

I tried to read your value investing web site and I got a question as someone who is interested in the same method. Looking at all the stocks in your value portfolio, all the 19 existing stocks are held for 5 months or less except one (see below). This is a very interesting to say the least for a value investor who quotes Warren Buffett. Why did you have to buy and sell so frequently (as indicated in your fund activity) and kept almost none long for 5 months. If you are good at finding values in stocks for practicing value investing, shouldn't you keep them somewhat longer?

Now I am not saying that you are wrong with this stock but your record doesn't convince me that I should trust your ability more than that of mine, not yet. Regardless, I don't necessarily disagree that you may have some good reasons for believing what you believe.

So far you would not convince me with the insider selling story given my own account of it, but let's move on to the second point and if you care to take some time to give some more analysis on this:
I would sincerely like to learn more from you as from your perspective, how PPD's cash flow and net earning should looking like for the quarter if they were to use an accounting method that you would approve. I think I understand what you were saying about that their current accounting method overstating their net income, but is it accurate that you equate their net cash flow as stated now as the actual net income and use it for your P/E calculation, etc.? Should the whole difference be excluded? Maybe you can give a more valid discount rate instead of making it disappear totally?

Regards,

Shawn

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valuestocks.net
Company Ticker Shares Avg Price Initial Date 2/13/00
Amazon.com AMZN (50) 82 5/8 2/88/00 76 3/16
Exodus Communications EXDS (30) 129 2/8/00 114 9/16
Pre-Paid Legal PPD (300) 26 7/8 2/7/00 28 11/16
Clayton Homes CMH 600 8 9/16 12/28/99 8
Crane Co. CR 150 18 3/8 12/16/99 19 9/16
Deswell Industries DSWL 400 9 53/64 1/1/99 17
EastGroup Properties EGP 150 17 3/4 9/20/99 19 5/8
Elder-Beerman Stores EBSC 600 5 1/16 12/29/99 4 31/32
HealthSouth HRC 600 6 27/32 9/7/99 5 5/16
Homestake Mining HM 450 7 9/16 9/17/99 7 9/16
Huttig Building Products HBP 33 0 12/17/99 4 3/16
HRPT Property Trust HRP 400 7 1/2 12/16/99 8 13/16
LaSalle Hotel Properties LHO 200 13 1/2 9/21/99 12 7/8
Mattel MAT 300 13 10/4/99 10 11/16
Ross Stores ROST 200 12 1/4 1/25/00 14 11/16
Senior Housing Properties SNH 400 11 1/4 10/13/99 8 7/8
Tidewater TDW 100 25 3/8 10/5/99 26 1/8
Tricon Global YUM 250 32 3/8 9/22/99 29 5/8
Washington Mutual WM 150 23 5/8 1/25/00 22 13/16
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