..but bet on public appearances for as long as three more years.
According to an amendment to their license (see Rambus's '98 10-K,
edgar.sec.gov;
"..(a) Intel will use its continuing best efforts in marketing, public
relations, and engineering to make the Rambus-D DRAM the primary DRAM
for PC main memory applications through December 31, 2002; and (b) Intel
will communicate to the top (10) DRAM manufacturers, Intel's intention
to support the Rambus-D Interface Technology in its integrated circuits
for low end workstation, performance desktop, and basic PC platforms."
Note, mind you, the conspicuous absence of servers in that
clause. The contradiction between DDR-in-servers and RDRAM-in-PCs
starts to make sense. Expect also continued RDRAM support in
chipsets. If you look at Rambus's most recent 10-K (http://edgar.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/917273/0001012870-99-004768.txt)
you find the following language about Intel's RMBS warrants:
"..granted a warrant to Intel Corporation for the purchase of 1,000,000
shares of Rambus common stock at an exercise price of $10.00 per share.
The warrant will become exercisable only upon the achievement of certain
milestones by Intel relating to shipment volumes of Rambus-based chipsets."
I expect Intel execs still believe they can ram (cough) RDRAM
down the markets throat. But if they can't, you know they're not
about to leave $100,000,000 lying on the table -- especially since
all they need to do is make chipsets to get it. Check the options
contracts for Geoff Tate and David Mooring; both have a clause to
the effect that,
"..Common Stock Equivalents shall vest on the date, if any, that the
Company determines that more than 20% of the main memory chipsets
shipped by Intel Corporation in each of two (2) consecutive calendar
quarters implement certain Company interface specifications.."
I'd bet all Intel needs to do to get its $100 million is,
one, ship enough Rambus-enabled chipsets (which, IMO, they are
well on their way to doing), and two, issue enough positive spin
to prop up RMBS stock until they sell out (unless they already
hedged their exposure -- -g-). Again, this clears up the otherwise
odd strategy of shipping "mixed" chipsets. See Gelsinger at IDF,
theregister.co.uk
"We'll ship multi millions of i820 in the next quarter, and
some of these will be in two + two configurations, mixing
synchronous memory and Rambus memory."
Translation: we're getting
our money if we have to ship silicon that never gets used.
The whole soap opera is entertaining; I'm sure glad I'm not a
corporate IT buyer right now, though. -mb |
