Jeffrey,
Given the amazing volume these past few days, I don't think we're going to notice if insiders were to sell now. An interesting chunk from CYPB's latest quarterly tells me dilution is coming down the pike unless these guys get cash flow positive quickly:
sec.gov
Note the number of shares out is given as 46 million and change. Note further that the number authorized is 60 million for th common. They've just had an exercise of 7 million by the CEO. Doesn't that come from the treasury stock, thus adding 7 million to the shares outstanding? So they could only issue 7 million more shares without a vote. The preferred has been retired, but I believe they are authorized to issue 3.33333 million shares of that.
What does this mean in the overall context of CYPB recent past and near future stock price? It means that whatever is causing this pump, it will be over when they announce more stock placements, probably private placements of the convertible preferred. They'd have to issue a lot of good news to counteract that. I don't see the PROSORBA column being very widely used, but if it can keep the company afloat without further dilution, then we have upside from CYPB's platelet research, long term. We could see news on PII trials for the platelet transfusion product in the next few weeks /months. In that scenario, the stock could well deserve middle single digits.
OK, so then after preferred is issued, a vote gets on the ballot for the next shareholders meeting to increase the number of authorized shares. By the time the deal goes off, the price should have bottomed for 'em and they load up once again.
These up and down with dilution scenarios depend on the company not making money for a while. Isn't that supposed to be the case for about a year? Do we have any clue as to when earnings are coming out? Gotta dig for that and a couple of other things. If I can't call the number of the top, maybe I can call the time, which would be even better.
Right now, FWIW, Thompson I-Watch shows about 20% institutional and 10% other, with rest being retail. HMMMMMM.
Cheers, Tuck |
