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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 157.41-3.0%10:00 AM EST
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To: Gottfried who wrote (8228)2/15/2000 5:31:00 PM
From: Running Bull  Read Replies (3) of 10921
 
A story about indicators

I worked for a semi cap equip company for a few years in strategic planning and so I had access to all kinds of data both inside, customer and industry. Talked to consultants salesmen etc. regularly. Company wide data bases, clipping services analysts reports ..... Bottom line is, when the bottom dropped out, we didn't have a clue it was coming. All of a sudden off of a record bookings month, you have a bad month. But all the forecasts still look great. Everybody talks a good story. Budgets still in place. Money getting spent like drunken sailors. Budding Optimism. Then you have a good month, because salesmen get the heat put on them, and they pull in some orders from their friends. Then another shaky month and another...But by now you are 4 months into the start of the slump, the official statistics are starting to show a decline in bookings and...guess what..the stock price dropped three months ago and no one could figure out why at the time.

I guess the point of all this is that even with the best information, the market knew what was going to happen long before it was evident to those of us in the middle of it.

My guess is that the present euphoria will peak somewhere around Semicon West in early July. But what do I know?

BTW, the company I worked for did two secondary offerings just prior to the peak.

RB
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