Defining Moment
tekboy,
I should have run my idea by you privately before posting because you, more than me, were at the center of that discussion back then. You might have to remind me more of what we discussed, ummm, decided. :)
I'm completely misunderstanding your point. I'll try to explain.
The implication was that the ideal time to invest in company X would be when we were able to determine that the company had just become a gorilla (or king), but the world at large had not yet really woken up to its improved prospects.
Once the Gem/Guide merger is a done deal and if the manufacturers and cable operators come to an agreement, I think the agreement will be relatively unrecognized by the market yet entirely appreciated by us. I think your next statement agrees with me, yet you seem to use it as a reason to disagree.
An agreement re HDTV and set-top boxes might indeed constitute a "defining moment" in the actual Gemstar quest for gorillahood ... but it would probably not constitute a "defining moment" in the perceptual gorilla game, because it might well be too arcane for people to pick up on....
Exactly! Only we, the folks at the leading edge of knowledge and research, would know about it. We'd pick up on the importance long before the rest of the market without suffering any increased degree of risk.
What am I missing?
And now to a less important point, but worth mentioning:
I remember when people felt the settling of the TV Guide and GI lawsuits was supposed to be the "defining moment"; then the merger; then the close of the merger; then the consumer retail availability of set-top boxes; then the tornado evidence of guide spread. (First two have happened, second three should happen in the next 6 months.) Now Merlin is talking about still another one... :0)
Only one GIC arbitration is determined, so I don't include that in the "alrady happened" category. Of all those issues you mention, only one -- the annoucnement of the Gem/Guide merger -- has happened. The one I'm talking about could be resolved virtually any day, before the others you mentioned. No promises of course, but it could happen any day.
--Mike Buckley |
