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Technology Stocks : Network Associates (NET)
NET 232.91-6.2%3:59 PM EST

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To: Y-fall who wrote (5893)2/16/2000 1:13:00 AM
From: Elephant  Read Replies (1) of 6021
 
My very own merger rumor

A unique set of conditions are in place at the moment that could make a merger between NETA and another company possible. If it is to happen at all, I think it will happen now, and I believe the best candidate is Computer Associates. Here are the reasons.

1) Security is now officially CA's focus, although it has been preparing for this for years. The $1b A/V market is one that they are already in with the Cheyenne purchase a couple of years ago. If there's one thing that NETA does right, it is A/V.

2) NETA has recovered off its $10/sh lows to the point where a buyout at 2x the current stock price would make most shareholders happy.

3) NETA has not recovered sufficiently enough to where the company is expensive to the acquirer at 2x the current stock price.

4) At 2x the current stock price, the acquirer can still placate its own shareholders by saying that the resulting buyout price is less than last year's high.

5) CA's stock price is historically high now.

6) CA is large enough and has a record of successful acquisitions including Platinum Technologies at $4billion last year.

For the record, although nothing might happen, I believe the circumstances are as good now as they are going to be in the foreseeable future.

- Elephant
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