I see a minimum of $21-$23 short term for IM even with current earnings estimate of $0.23. Look what's going on with IM call options....
(http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/000215/bhl.html)
Tuesday February 15, 7:47 pm Eastern Time
U.S. Options - Ingram Micro call volume stays high
CHICAGO, Feb 15 (Reuters) - Call volume picked up even more on Tuesday in options on Ingram Micro Inc. (NYSE:IM - news) and implied volatility stayed strong as the market eyed the California-based company's earnings due this week.
At 2:30 p.m. CST (2030 GMT), some 5,785 calls and 660 puts had traded on the Chicago Board Options Exchange, American Stock Exchange and Philadelphia Stock Exchange combined.
That exceeded recent daily turnover of around 600 contracts and also outstripped Monday's total of about 3,370 contracts.
``(Volume) has picked up pleasantly,' said a designated primary market maker with Botta Trading at the CBOE. ``It was a lot less than it is now.'
Busiest were the February 17.5 calls, which expire on Friday. They rose 3/4 to 1 on the American Stock
Exchange on interexchange volume of about 3,360 and open interest of 907.
The DPM noted that implied volatility has picked up, especially in calls as a function of supply and demand.
``It spiked up a little bit,' he said, quoting the March 15s at around 82 percent. ``The stock has had a pretty good move here.'
The one-month historical volatility of the stock on Tuesday stood was 77 percent, up from about 49 percent on Thursday.
Shares of the wholesale distributor of computer technology products and services had ranged mainly between about $16 and $11 after it spiked lower last September.
It has risen since it closed at $11-2/16 on Feb. 11 and on Tuesday ended up 1-12/16 at $15-11/16 on New York Stock Exchange volume of 2.7 million.
California-based Ingram Micro is expected to report earnings of Feb. 17. Analysts expect the company to earn 23 cents per share during the fourth quarter compared with 49 cents a share during the same year-ago period, according to a consensus forecast from First Call/Thomson Financial.
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With Book value at $11.80 and the SoftBank holdings worth another $9-$11 that should give us a minimum value of $21-$23. If earnings can stabilize at $0.25/quarter and the company can show a business plan for double digit growth utilizing E-Commerce B-to-B distributions; look for a run to the low $30's with the announcement of a new CEO.
EKS |
