Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 218.30

+8.6%

Jan 9 9:30 AM EST

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To: Q. who wrote (8234)	2/16/2000 9:14:00 AM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Read Replies (2) of 10921

>>What I wonder is whether we are looking at an unsustainable boom in capital investment by the semiconductor makers. And how long before it leads to overcapacity. Maybe it will take a good long while.<< The information that I have is that the foundries spent vast--probably unsustainable--amounts on equipment in 1999, and are continuing to do so in 2000. You can expect the next slump to hit when all those fabs start to come online, with the precise details depending on macroeconomics and chip demand. It takes 18 months to build a fab, and I'd put the start of the boom in roughly July 1999. That puts the start of the slump in late 2000 or early 2001. Yes, I know the cycle bottom was in October, 1998. I'm discounting the first part of the cycle because it was something of a fabless recovery--people were buying technology upgrades, but not the kind of major expansion that creates booms and busts. Disclaimer: None of my own money is invested in this sector, so it won't cost me anything to be wrong. Do your own DD. Katherine

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