Bill Wexler's Dog Pound Message Board

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Non-Tech : Bill Wexler's Dog Pound

REFR 1.620

+2.5%

3:59 PM EST

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To: J.Y. Wang who wrote (6727)	2/16/2000 11:30:00 AM
From: BelowTheCrowd	Read Replies (2) of 10293

I agree. Cramer is at his best when things AREN'T looking perfect and he draws on his experience to try to explain what's going on, what to look for that might signal a change, etc. He did that very well during the Asia crisis and during many of the other drops. His look back at the CD debacle that cost him 1998 and several others were good too. He's great when there's really weird MM stuff, or other unclear trading mechanics pushing stocks up or down. Again, his experience shows. Unfortunately, neither he nor the value guys have much good to say when the market just moves up inexplicably. He makes up excuses for why things are great and should continue to be. The value guys mostly write about why we're all ultimately doomed. Fact is, neither of the camps has ANY experience to draw on in explaining this market. Nothing like it has existed in our lifetimes. The only possible sources are books covering periods like the US in 1929, the railroad manias (US and UK) in the 1800s, the South Seas debacle in the UK in the 1800s, and the everpresent tulips. And the only conclusion you can draw from any of those is: when things move up to prices which cannot be justified in terms of earnings, they will EVENTUALLY fall. And "eventually" is pretty fuzzy advice... mg

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