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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club
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To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (11974)2/16/2000 12:18:00 PM
From: T Bowl  Read Replies (2) of 15132
 
Hi Bob(Uhh, Justa & Gang)… Long time lurker, 1st time poster and I am a "subscriber" to the thread…

Here's my question. I've heard Bob mention that nobody sees inflation "in the
rear view mirror," but that if you look fwd you see signs that it is in fact on the
horizon. I've done some research into the FIG and FIBER reports and agree
100% that it doesn't look good. I was especially interested in the section
on the FIG site that compared all of the long term future indicators:
businesscycle.com
Seems to me that in fact if what they are saying about FIG is true, then we are headed
for some "rear view mirror" indications of inflation this summer, say June/July.
IMO, one of the few things that can derail this market is inflation(and the resulting
FED actions). And with the current momentum in techs(the area I'm really interested in),
I think it's probably the only thing that will deflate the bubble. (FWIW, I've been
bouncing in and out of USPIX/UOPIX for a little over a year now.)

But it all makes me question a few fundamentals that someone may be able to answer.
The FIG looks pretty solid. It has "seen" 90% of cyclical turns ahead of time.
It only gives a false positive 9% of the time. It's never missed a cycle. Blah, blah.
If Greenspan really follows the FIBER reports closely, and they are correct, and he
buys it, then IMO we are headed for trouble. But this all seems to obvious to me.

If it's all so obvious, why are all the talking heads spewing "no inflation" rhetoric
all over the media? Are they that naïve? Am I that naïve? Is the FIG/FIBER
talk all nonsense? How can we continue to explode higher with this on the
horizon? Am I just being paranoid? Any ideas?

Also, I've assembled all of the FIG data and a lot of the FIBER info going back the
last few years. Anyone know a good(quick) spot to get CPI/PPI history?

todd
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