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Biotech / Medical : Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH)

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To: per strandberg who wrote (646)	4/28/1997 11:13:00 PM
From: margie	of 6136

Here's Part 1 of a post by LMoss estimating the sales and price of viracept. Estimating the sales of Viracept Date: Wed, 12 Mar 1997 19:36:37 EST From: LMoss - AOL As a starting point in calculating an intrinsic value for AGPH, let's consider the important factors in estimating the likely sales of Viracept in AGPH's FY99 (ending June 1999). An estimate of this sort is not an exact science. There are many uncertainties involved. I think it useful to explicitly recognize the most important of these uncertainties, so that those who disagree with the estimated values can use their own best estimates to calculate a different outcome. The method I propose is to identify the most important issues and uncertainties that will affect Viracept sales, estimate the probabilities that each of these issues will be resolved in either one way or another, estimate the likely impact of each of these outcomes on Viracept sales, and sum over all possible outcomes to arrive at a probability-weighted estimate of sales. Probabilities are given on a scale of 1, so p=0.0 means that there is no chance of an event occurring and p=1.0 means that it is a sure thing. To reduce the number of variables and simplify the analysis, an event believed to have a very high probability (p>0.95) will be assumed to occur, and an event believed to have a very low probability (p<.05) will be assumed not to occur. I put the following events in the first category: FDA will approve the Viracept NDA in 1H97 (calendar year); and combination thereapy with at least one protease inhibitor (PI) will be the standard treatment for AIDS in FY99. I put in the second category (very low probability): A vaccine for AIDS that can replace combination therapy will be successfully developed, tested, and approved in the next three years." LMoss Continued in next post.

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