There are still lots of DOS PC's out there (the masses are slow to adapt new technology), and what incentive can be offered to a Windows user to toss their PC, and applications and move to an unfamiliar environment?
You know me, I'd be the first to agree that people are slow to adapt. On the other hand, you'll see them buying W2K, 63000 bugs & all, in droves. I think to the extent Linux is viewed as an alternative to a Windows desktop, there is a market there.
Would you really want to launch a start-up whose product would be a word processor or checkbook program?
Word processor, spreadsheet, or desktop database? No. But at this point, other applications (checkbooks programs included) offer viable opportunities for small companies to have a shot. And because of this, I think you'll see a proliferation of small companies doing Linux development over the next couple of years. I'm convinced there is enough work to go around.
Look for the areas where Windows can not compete.
I don't know of any business area where Windows cannot compete; after all, a good bit of "competition" is in having deep pockets. But if the implication is that Linux can compete in the servers area but not elsewhere, I just don't believe that will prove to be correct.
I envision huge changes in the "server" market, and I think they look radically different in the future. Has anyone used one of these Quantum "Snap" Servers? I have put in several, and they are fantastic devices. In effect, a cheap 10-20 or -40GB disk drive with a network card and TCP/IP software. They'll talk to 95,98,NT, Mac, Unix, Linux, about anything. And you simply plug them into the hub. There are no crashes, they're fast enough for small networks, no keyboard, no monitor, hell, we mount them on the wall next to the hub.
These kinds of devices are likely to proliferate. While they may run Linux, I'd bet we'll see more proprietary code. My point is, if Linux is only good as a server, I don't see that there is enough market there to be excited about anyway. It is a safe bet Linux will make it to the desktop. |
