AVXT earnings estimates for next 5 yrs.
by: granmapatty 2/16/00 8:04 am
Msg: 2008 of 2081
The following earnings estimates were conservative to the extreme. My profit estimate for each patient was as lower as most would consider prudent. My estimates of patient population capture of 10% of the market for each cancer indication was probably accurate. Based on these assumptions the following are my calculations:
All $ values are in U.S. currency. Assume AVXT only captures 10% of any country?s market for a particular cancer indication. There are 18,000 new Melanoma cases in Australia/year and 44,000 Melanoma cases in the U.S./year. Assume (very conservative) that AVXT?s earnings in Australia is $2,500/patient (since Neptunus has a 50% share). There are 1,800 MVAX patients (10% * 18,000). Therefore, in Australia, AVXT?s earnings are $2500 * 1800=$4.5 Mil. In the U.S., assume a net profit of $5,000/patient (very conservative). Therefore, the net earnings in the U.S. is $5000/patient * 4,400 patients (i.e., 10% of 44,000) = $22 Mil. Assume MVAX commercialization starts in Germany, Japan and Netherlands in 2001, and the U.S. in mid 2002. Assume the OVAX population is 4 times the MVAX population. Based on those assumptions my earning forecast for AVXT is (assume 11Mil shares):
2000: $0.41/share MVAX in Australia
2001: $0.75/share MVAX in Australia, Germany, Japan, Netherlands
2002: $2.75/share MVAX in A, G, J, N, and the U.S
2003: $11/share MVAX in A,G,J,N,+other countries AND OVAX in U.S
2004: $16/share MVAX AND OVAX in A,G,J,U.S.
2005: $25/share MVAX AND OVAX AND BVAX (growth from 2004 plus BVAX contribution of $6/share.) |
