Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (60471)	2/17/2000 10:27:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (4) of 95453

Interesting OSX action... no reason to chase anything here imo. There is still no commitment from momenteum money - that is an absolute prerequisite for us to break resistance; regardless of commodity prices. They did not commit prior to the final OPEC meeting last year and I dont think they will do anything different this time. With all these upgrades of late, with commodity prices where they are and being much closer to the sweetspot in the cycle; this "coiled Spring" will have even more bounce than last year imho... I would refuse to chase anything here - sit patiently for value; add only on strong retracements that are oversold. Pick individual stocks carefully - lots of laggards & small caps that are still disproportionately cheap here. E&P's still have a 30% gap to OSX valuations and the anomaly in their valuation lag to their much superior present and potentiall near future fundamentals of earnings visibility and their pureplay nature of commodity prices; still makes this a strong overweight for the patient investor. Margin - only for "hit & run" trading here, or real value plays with proven support - ie: some integrateds, select majors and perhaps small caps, laggards and some E&P's with strong fundamentals and strong support. We still have lots of posturing, talking, spin-doctoring, leaking - all equaling strong volatility into the OPEC meeting. We will have lots of opportunity to buy here. I am waiting for another retrace in BHI HAL - opportunity to add DO FLC RIG, maybe more PGO, small caps and softness in E&P's like PXD of late. I still like a bit of margin on these mini-majors/integrateds of late... P UCL COC etc. o/t..... financials: Could get real interesting. Greenspan may not hike in the next meeting if we see the DOW retrace to sub 10K. Also, we may see an early over-reaction selloff if the Nasdq rallys strongly here - either scenario could represent an oversold final bottom capitulation to select financials who are NOT going to have their earnings momenteum affected by 2 more .25 rate hikes. Different market situation than the Longterm Capital crisis..... some real LT bargains in financials. Steel also looks intriguing... OIL, Steel, small S&L's for my Boom 2000...

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