Zeev:
Couldn't agree more with your take on Intel's strategy, but
the need for faster PCs won't become compelling without new applications. I don't see any yet.
Speech recognition is a hot button for me personally, but may not be for the general public, most of whom are comfortable on the keyboard.
The reality in the field now, is that price is everything for PCs. While Intel still retains decent margins for high end micros, they are not selling a bunch of them (Athlon pressure plus yield problems plus price wars). The impact of those eMachines and the local cloners has been immense.
I also think that the current shrink from 25 to 18 micron line width at Intel has proven a greater effort than most expected. No doubt they will sort it out in the end, but meantime, Intel is giving up ground (again) to AMD.
Like you, I also think that 800 Mhz will eventually become a standard, but the demand out there for speed is simply not there the way it was a few years ago. A new 600 Mhz won't provide me with any discernible speed advantages over my 166 Mhz (admittedly no games) for most applications.
With respect to RMBS, I can't see where or how they will make any consequential dough, particularly now that Intel has stated that RMBS won't be used in servers (that surprised me) nor the bottom end (which was a given). Sales of high end boxes won't put diddly into Rmbs' revenue line, never mind their profits.
RMBS is also vulnerable to having their royalties squeezed mercilessly if sales were better than I expect them to be. Samsung holds all the clout in this situation if demand were to increase substantially.
Best, Earlie |
