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Technology Stocks : American Power Conversion
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To: Paul Jansen who wrote (1292)4/29/1997 7:54:00 AM
From: Joseph Francis Torti   of 2574
 
Paul, To be honest I do not have a crystal ball. To answer your Question NO, I would not short it here. If you look at the charts from last year we all know that Apcc is following it's seasonal
trend. Last year charts show Apcc going down from now to late July or just before the July earnings came out, then start to go up till January 97. I feel it will to exactly the same thing but they still must maintain better then their projected 20 to 25% revenue growth. Base on fundamental I believe it's just undervalued until the next quarter reports and it better beat it by at least 5cents. First call projects 27 cents my opinion they will not beat it. But I have this hunch that this crooked management held back some revenue last quarter to make the next quarter good . Let me just conclude that if this stock should makes a new high by the next Stockholder`s meeting next year, vote for a new board of director. Paul another fact and I just want to bring this up, Historical 5 year low P.E on Apcc was 10 last July 16. If you think it will match that this year, would give Apcc a chance to see 10.40 cents stock price.
But when Apcc made that new low in July the whole market and tech sector was tanking like it's doing now except for msft, intc, dell, The NAZ went from 1180 down to 10200 late July then made that incredible run up to a new high. If you think it will see 10.00 buy some cheap just out of the money puts I think the 15 May puts are selling for 3/4 with only 18 day left for expiration and the stock still at least going down might be a little too risky , if you need more time buy the June but I think the price is to high on them. I am sitting tight until July. Hope this helps .
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