>>Mehta said the technology would go further than TiVo, however, by identifying which person in a household is watching the set at any given time, based on the programming that was selected. This will enable the system to call up commercials it has cached on a hard drive to replace one spot from a particular sponsor with a commercial for another product or service in that company's line.<<
Gosh, it occurs to me this thing is full of potential for having a little bit of fun at advertiser's expense, and it also smacks a little too much for my likings like "commercial Big Brother" invading my privacy.
If this device, and the underlying technology, is going to be able to drill down to the level that it can differentiate that I prefer 2-ply white toilet paper while my 10-year old son prefers 1-ply print toilet paper, I think it is a candidate for inaccuracies and a lack of acceptance.
First, I don't think consumers are going to want to accept in their household a device that is capable of this level of "monitoring", which is really what it is. Gemstar has to be considerate of this concern as well, but as the provider of the underlying technology rather than the device itself, somewhat less so.
Also, There has to be AI generated rules, similar to or structured in an expert system rulebase as the core technology inside the device. Rules such as "If VIEWER is watching after 10 PM AND VIEWER is currently watching a sports related event AND VIEWER has flipped channel back & forth between Playboy Channel more than 10 times in past 60 minutes THEN VIEWER is teenage male in household" would be used to deduce who the current viewer is.
Since the system allows for manufacturers to substitute alternate commercials for a given time slot, how would NIKE really benefit from this technology? With specialization and market focus becoming more and more a factor, manufacturers don't seem to benefit much from having this much flexibility. Now if NIKE also made say bars of soap, maybe then it might make some sense :o)
How would Campbell's benefit? Would they substitute the tomato soup commercial for a chicken soup commercial becasue the system deduces the current viewer is sick? And really, as a person that used to program rule based expert systems, I can assure you there is a large margin for error and manipulation.
For example, simply leave the TV on all night, now what is the system going to think? Dude fell asleep on the couch, and therefore needs to see a NO-DOZE commercial? Or, how is it going to account for factors such as staggered work schedules? If I work graveyard, and in the morning watch sopa operas, as the male head of the household, does it have the intelligence to show beer & babe commercials instead of feminine hygience ads?
You could also really dick with your neighbors if you wanted to. Simply get an RF device that transmits over a distance, then slip over one day and sync it with his TV. Let dude go to sleep, then start flicking on his TV and tune it back and forth between a naughty channel and some TV evangalist on a mission. What sort of advertisements is that dude going to have in his storage device?
The other thing is that with technology, all the poor suckers with "illegal" cable TV boxes may be busted. The technology will know they are watching a Pay-per-view channel; will the local cable company be able to discern this fact?
My point is that TOO MUCH control strikes me as a technology that is prone to error, susceptible to manipulation, generally useless in an era of highly specialized manufacturers, and it is going to be a sore subject with consumers that conclude it is an invasion of privacy.
I think the business model GMST has crafted is more likely to fly, since it appears to work on aggregate numbers, collected in a more discreet manner and processed on a back-end system transparent to the end-user. If someone thinks this argument is not valid, then I ask the simple question "why do so many people choose to block their phone numbers from identification with Caller ID?"
The answer is privacy! And the fine line between determining what is "an invasion of privacy" and what is "providing service" is the source of great debate. My answer will be rather unique, I will simply build a little electronic filter and signal device that sends a signal that no matter the time of day, day of the week, or even month of the year, my TV is always doing one thing ... tuning in to Scooby Doo.
Now, wouldn't that be something, how would the technology deal with that, and more importantly don't you think eventually that is exactly what will happen, devices of this sort will be developed to counter the collection of information perceived to be an invasion of privacy?
If Gemstar follows their current path, they have NOTHING to fear from this sort of technology, it simply is not going to work in practital terms. Looks great on paper, but like screen doors on a submarine, doesn't work that good in the real world. Pass, keep going GMST, just make us some money baby, lots of money would be fine by me.
Regards, JB
P.S. Web Myst, 2 reasons for concluding GMST is a winner are:
1. Reading and digesting highly intelligent posts on this thread (barring mine :o)
2. Discussing in great detail business model with someone I greatly respect |
