not a detailed TA blurb on QCOM, but some thoughts
we have retested the 120 zone
first time was the precipitous plunge from 180 to 105 intraday, with a close at 111, after some support at 120
now we really scraped out in textbook fashion with lower volume that same 120 zone and it held on multiple perusals
we got off our backs on Thurs-Friday with much improved volume, after seeing volume pick up on Wednesday
money flow is looking EXCELLENT, most stupendous
check out money flow on charts and see the nice rise
with Dow sucking serious wind, and Naz sporadic, I loved today in a big way... but I am not at the pulse, hearing only second hand diddies... but we showed excellent alpha behavior today, as well as relative strength... we have survived the big retest of the January lows with a strong upward bias
big news IMO on Motorola picking up on orders, now biggest customer
biggest risk: the Fed preemptively slamming world economic growth
they did it in 1997, leading to the Asian Meltdown, but only few stick them with the blame
it goes in order: fedhike, then US$ rises, then developing nation currency falters, then devnation realestate and stock markets decline, then devnat economies slide, and US exports drop, then massive disturbances with something
last time it was the spread between Treasury yield and UScorp yield that killed LongTermCapMgmt in the first volley, followed by Russian default shockwave
last late autumn I predicted Fed errors, economist errors
it is not unfolding quite as predicted
yet to come is the mild slowdown in the USeconomy post-y2k
my fear is we slow down at the same time as the Fed does not illadvised 4th, 5th, 6th rate hikes
the risk is enormous now for the Fed
Greenspan knows it, since he orchestrated the last screwup
he has been branded a genius unjustifiably
he bailed out LTCM as a final chapter to his spring97 rate hike that lit the Asian Meltdown match
more on this later, gotta read more
now in Atlanta on my southern tour
where is the poody?
/ Jim |
