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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 680.27

-0.5%

Dec 1 4:00 PM EST

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To: Michael Watkins who wrote (40687)	2/18/2000 7:34:00 PM
From: KyrosL	Read Replies (2) of 99985

Michael, I got out of techs around the end of last December. I loaded up on utilities in the last couple of weeks in lieu of cash. I have a modest zero coupon bond position -- I think LT bond rates have seen their highs for a while. I have March NDX puts whose underlying value roughly equals the value of my longs, so I am essentially also close to 100% cash, with a bet that in the short term utilities will outperform the NDX. There is no question in my mind that the NASDAQ is a monstrous bubble. Sentiment indicators and divergences point to a top. Still, it's very hard to predict accurately when bubbles will burst. My gut tells me that we are close to bursting, and I am positioned for that, but my gut is usually wrong.

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