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Non-Tech : The Critical Investing Workshop

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To: Voltaire who wrote (851)2/19/2000 9:51:00 AM
From: stockman_scott  Read Replies (1) of 35685
 
Hi Voltaire.... Here is the Briefing.com on the market...FYI...

<<16:09 ET ******

Weekly Wrap: As this week closes, it is time to admit it. It isn't just the Nasdaq Composite index calculating computer that is broken. All traditional correlation factors are broken. For example, it used to be that rising interest rates kept stocks from rising. Now, it seems the opposite is true. In 1999, rates rose 150 basis points, yet the stock market, particularly the Nasdaq, had its best year ever. It used to be when Greenspan even spoke about rising rates, the stock market retreated. This week, he did just that, but the Nasdaq rose anyways. In fact, it used to be when Greenspan even spoke about rising rates, that bonds fell. No longer, apparently, because bonds rose this week. It used to be that you could say something like "the market rose" because, in general, most stocks traded the same. Now it is more common for the Dow to be down when the Nasdaq is up, and the Dow to be up when the Nasdaq is down. Despite today's action, this point was driven home strongly this week, as the Dow and Nasdaq moved in opposite directions, sometimes in big spreads. And today, until the Nasdaq Composite calculation broke, the Nasdaq was about even for the day, while the Dow was down more than 100 points. And for the week, the Nasdaq was still up, while the Dow was slaughtered. And all this while interest rates fell this week. Go figure.

Friday Thursday Wednesday Tuesday Monday
DOW -293 -46 -156 +198 +94
Nasdaq -133 +121 +7 +2 +23

Regardless of what you think about all the stories of "the new economy" that are used to justify high valuations, you have to admit one thing: this isn't your father's stock market.

Weekly Returns Symbol Close Weekly Change Percent Change
Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,221.07 (204.14) -2.0 %
S&P 500 (INX) 1346.60 (40.51) -2.9 %
Nasdaq (COMPX) 4,415.65 19.42 0.4 %
30-Year Treasury Yield NA 6.15 % (0.13) (13 basis points) NM

Next week should be calm as far as economic releases go. A revised GDP number comes up, but we know it will just show really strong growth again (the initial number was 5.8%). Durable goods orders may show a decline, according to Briefing.com's own economic forecast, but the durable goods number stopped being meaningful a while back. The Nasdaq daytraders couldn't care less about sales of dishwashers. This week's theme is the lost correlation of the "old days" and most economic releases seem to have lost their power, as well. At least the minor ones have, and that's all we have next week. Come to think of it, there is even lost correlation within the economic releases. Oil prices have skyrocketed, but inflation numbers continue to say everything is cheaper. Well, not everything of course. In the last two years, the only real hyper-inflation has been in the stock market itself. - RVG >>
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I hope your surgery went well.

Have a good weekend.

Regards,

Scott
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