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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 670.92

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Nov 7 4:00 PM EST

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To: Rarebird who wrote (40776)	2/19/2000 7:09:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (1) of 99985

>>>Nasdaq has held up better than the Dow and S&P merely on account of speculation or is there something more fundamental going on here?<<< bird i'm surprised at this question -g- I've got a Wyckoff Supply/Demand Idealized Cycle chart here I'm going to send to Haim. It's a leaning S shaped curve, with the bottom of the S showing oversold (caused by fear) and the top of the S showing overbought (caused by greed). With an upsloping line going thru the S as the primary growth trend. With this market you have such extremes with most stocks on the oversold part of the curve and the techs at the top of the curve. I don't think this is real healthy. On the contrary indicator front (to add to mdd posts -g-) in todays LA Times the front page devoted the left most 1/6 column to the market slide and included a floor trader wiping his brow and the dow chart. At all other major bottoms since i've been following the market, the Times has made a major full top half spread about the market slide, with the headline in 72 to 100 point type. This 1/6 column article was in 36 point type. At the October 99 bottom there was such a spread after Greenspans "risk premiums" speech, on the Saturday after expiration I think the complacency here is because of the nasdaq rally, we have had about the same percentage dow drop so far from the top as the october slide. I think a close below 10,000 will make a front page spread here. My guess is that front page spread will come with fibonacci 55 day cycle which comes in around next Sunday. Another interesting point here is that both the october 99 headline and todays small headline gave the plunge on RATE-HIKE FEARS. This is while the bellweather 30 year bond has broken it's downtrendline after a period of extreme bearishness on bonds. I know, I know, it's no longer a bellweather -g-, more new era speak -g- b

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