But seriously, Zeev, how many times has this ominous downturn ALMOST happened. What it very clear now, and maybe for the foreseeable future, is that it becoming more a bull market for a 'select' stocks, and a bear market for the rest.
Verisign hit a new high on Friday. Fiber stocks are still hot. Biotech is going vertical almost every day. Yes, Cisco and Microsoft, sporting > 400 billion market cap can't go on up forever. But in the other sectors, it is a different story.
In 1996, big caps had lost steam and small caps had started their short-lasting rise, and the pundits said that the resemblance to a perfect bear market was in place. You know the rest.
With the spread of the Internet, the 'bear' market has to be redefined. Three years ago, when Intel went down 10%, stocks like Netscape and AOL would go down 30% - it was all one tech correction. Now, when Intel and Cisco go down 10%, a Fiber channel stock or a B2B stock could go up 30%. The correlations are getting more nebulous.
Maybe this is the new new economy. |
