I talked with a broker I know he said the company has several sources of revenue:
1)Sponsor income. - 7 or 8 sponsored sites who will pay to give surfers free access to their sites
- Examples include Stockwalk, Amway, CNET, Musicland, etc
- I don?t think $10 per sponsor per month is unrealistic.
- $80 per site per month in sponsorship income
- That?s $2.67 per site per day
2)Pay to Play - Just like a payphone, people will have to pay to use non-sponsor sites
- They plan to charge $1 for 5 minutes
- They plan to charge $5 for 30 minutes
- I don?t think that $10 per day of revenue is unrealistic
- After revenue sharing with the site that $7 a day per site
3)Affiliate Income - if they steer someone to any of the big retailers like AMAZON etc
- they will get a percentage of the sale
- You or I could do this today
- I don?t know about this one but I?ll give them $.50 per day.
4)Banner adds
? in addition to the sponsors they will sell banners
-These are hard to guess, prices change all the time and you get paid by the number of eyeballs you place in-front of the banner.
- This is a tough one again but I?ll Give them a $1 per terminal per day.
Revenue Totals:
Sponsor $2.5
Pay $7
Affiliate $.5
Banners $1
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$11 in revenue per site per day
Costs
Terminal $3500
Install 500
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$4,000 ? two year life -- $4,000/(365*2)= $5.50
Telephone $1 per day
Total costs $6.50 per day
Net income per terminal per day $11 - $6.5 = $4.50
Just in case there are any Nay Sayers out there I?m going to cut that $4.50 by 35% to $3.00 to be conservative.
Operating Income should be $3 * 365 * 30,000 terminals = $32,850,000 Bucks
Lets take a total guess and say that $13 million covers Non operating costs.
That leaves us with $20,000,000 in net income.
PHON doesn?t own all of Advantis, but I know they own more than 50%.
Lets say it just 50% though?that?s $10 million in net income.
There are 3 million shares out standing?.. this gives us a $3 per share in income
If you will give me a tiny PE of 10 times earnings?? this will be a $30 stock
THERE YOU GO?. MAN on the street valuation with 30,000 terminals
$30 per share.
Any thoughts on that? |
