Great discussion.
So is this another biotech boomlet? Are we on the verge of another slam, bang, CRASH with another decade to wait for the next surge...similar to the period we've waited for the this one? History and wise pundits are indispensable sages. It behooves us to listen to their cries of warning.
It behooves us to recall as well that statements of analogous gravity and comparable certainty were made ~3 years ago of Apple Computer's demise...and those that have been made every three months for the past 48 months that coincidental ~4 % unemployment and 2% inflation SIMPLY CANNOT CONTINUE.
I am a tiny bit familiar with the semiconductor sector - a highly cyclical industry. The current semi rally started about 18 months ago and, by everyone's perfect sine wave chart, should have already begun to end. In fact, the exact opposite is true: the sector is probably second only to biotechs this year in its % gain. And demand for semiconductors and semi-manufacturing equipment continues to rise. Last fall many investors were asking, 'why should this time be any different?'. And the appropriate response was, in hindsight, different than what? Charts, history, patterns - they're all tools...but should never be invoked dogmatically.
The affirmative response to 'Is this time different?' for the current biotech rally bears serious consideration (for many of the reasons given on this thread). It is precisely because so many doubt the legs of this biotech move that I feel it will be the most sustained bull market in the sector EVER...perhaps lasting 2-4 years. There's been a dramatic reevaluation here, after a very protracted bear market, and this is neither a fluke nor a flash in the pan.
Please, reconfigure your neural nets. This is now official dogma.
Or dogmeat. |
