>>what you are saying is what we have all been saying in this thread for past 4 years<<
I've seen too many posts that imply that not selling out before the earnings are released would be seen as a failure by management when, in fact, just the opposite is true. The only excuse for an early sell out would be another earnings short-fall.
>>Unfortunately when you are dealing with " irrational exuberance " it is hard
to stop smoking, put the glass down and get back to real life.
<<
This may be true of the "dot com" stocks, but the case for hardware companies like csco, nn, lu, nt, etc is very different indeed. The market for this type of company may be a bit ahead of itself on fundamentals (12 mo. at most), but there is tremendous intrinsic value in the infrastructure companies. Remember the gold rush of 1849 (ok, you're not that old...go look it up in a history book <g>). The people who made money were NOT the miners. Virtually all of them ended up broke, but the store keepers who sold them picks and shovels all got rich.
For all the internet growth we've seen in the last 10 years, the technology and the market for it has not even reached adolescence. The introduction of broadband to the home and wireless communications services alone offer huge opportunities. Mean while, most of the world is not yet wired for telephones, much less the internet, so there is a large gap to fill.
I don't recall making an estimate of a csco offer for NN, but the $100 you put in your table does sound about right. Let's call it a .75:1 exchange. The only problem I have is that I'm already top heavy with csco. I made a small investment in 1993 that just keeps growing and growing and growing. My cost basis is around $3. |
