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Technology Stocks : All About Sun Microsystems
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To: JC Jaros who wrote (28073)2/21/2000 7:15:00 PM
From: nihil  Read Replies (2) of 64865
 
The great lesson of modern technology (IMO) is that one must accept naturally arrived at standards. Itanium Merced is sampling and in the hands of OEMs. Solaris runs on it. The next three versions of Itanium will become the standard LIW 64 bit mpu's. UltraSparc III even if it arrives will be outclassed. Sun is not a world-class chip designer or manufacturer. Sun will be crippled unless Solaris on Itanium (or Solaris Sparc) is cost-effective enough to overcome its excessive cost of ownership.
SONY learned that superiority of BETAMAX meant nothing when everyone else climbed on the VHS train.
Boeing has not yet learned what happens when the rest of the world climbs aboard Airbus Industrie (which is not even a company).
Oh, you are right that my INTC vastly outstrips my SUNW holdings (if a few thousand shares can be dignified by the term "holdings." But I don't think with my portfolio. I consider performance and prospects. I'll admit that Cisco puzzles me. I cannot fully forecast how it will survive its challenges, but I feel almost exactly the same way about it as I do about Sun. I think Chambers is a marvelous salesman and a great high-stakes gambler. His purchase at an absurdly high price of Cerent appears to be a masterstroke. I would almost say that "The Router is the Network" would be a wonderful slogan for them. But they are not the best router manufacturer, they are merely the best networking company. And like SUN I've been in and out of partial positions in CSCO a dozen times or more. It has made me lots of money (far more than INTC or SUNW) and I have seldom missed a major turning point in the last few years by more than 5%. I figure I am doing much better with occasional trading than with by and hold (of course my trades are mostly tax free).
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