Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: SargeK who wrote (60702)	2/22/2000 10:37:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) of 95453

DUMP ALL FGH NOW ! - DeepH20xSgtK re: FGH - well, I tried telling you guys fwiw I said charges and losses - but, no one wanted to listen. Now; you see "good news" in this ?!?!?!?!?! ... I'll tell you what most EVERYONE else see's - the real nightmare will be in the divestitures of the shipbuilding assets yet to come. Also, did you see the Energy analysts on CNBC yesterday; they commented about the Oil Majors - 3 of whom control 50% of total cap ex - who are on record for NOT increasing cap ex in new projects in deepwater of the newbuild construction type. They said the "action" was in onshore domestic Nat Gas drilling and that would be the only place that would see an actual increase in cap ex - bodes well for KEG NBR UTI PTEN NR SESI NOI IIR et al... they even "dissed" RIG specifically... "deepwater" is NOT where its at in THIS boom. This BOOM not only "WILL" be different that the 97-98 cycle - but it allready is - for anyone paying attention. This is a lean & mean efficiency - onshore & nat gas oriented boom. One had better pick their ponies correctly and not buy individual stocks because they are merely cheap compared to the "last" cycle. In FGH's case - they are cheap and getting cheaper for good reason. If they dump the shipbuilding assets and it looks like they will - JL imho, commited the single worst management faux paux in the last 5 years in the Oilpatch - and that is not my original thought... but, rather consensus at this point imo and reflected by the shareprice. FGH see's the $3's imo before they report... thats my opinion and I have NOT been wrong on FGH in 6 months fwiw. Sarge; I merely ask you one simple question - dont you think the analysts & Institutions who have the "face to faces's" with FGH - would be buying the living hell out of this right here ? Sarge - are you and the imbecille's on Yahoo the ONLY ones who get it ? - hello ! 14 % damn percent Institutional ownership; SCREAMS problems ! ONE MILLION shorts who have not covered a triple here - SCREAMS PROBLEMS ! - get a damn clue people ~! Sarge - FACT ! the few remaining Institutions here did buy, but merely to prop up the stock price imho; and watch that change here... just watch... This is no longer the "yard of choice" - but, rather THE PARIAH OF THE PATCH in my most very humble "personal" opinion. DOWN SHE GOES.... women & children first... then "every man for himself" - maybe the captain will go down with the ship - imo, he deserves too... The consensus on the Street is that FGH is NOT done with bad news by any stretch of the imagination... that they have taken on so much deadwood - extra capacity and will take huge losses selling off parts of HLX if they do so; that they charges will eat away to the core of this company. There is simply not ample cap ex $ available for FGH's products in the next 24 mos - to even guarantee their financial survival. "IF" they survive, in my humble personal opinion; they will draw massively on their credit lines and become a debt laden posterchild for over-capacity & high overhead.HLX's profit margin - is virtually non existant on their remaining backlog. There is great potential for the HLX backlog to be a negative - not a positive; they could loose money on it all ... Backlog is burning as JL fiddles in the Tower... Bail out while you still can...

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