Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?

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To: MangoBoy who wrote (30470)	2/22/2000 2:26:00 PM
From: PJ Strifas	Read Replies (1) of 42771

RE: Novell losing ground to MSFT and Active Directory I have to disagree here -- Novell will NOT lose customers to Active Directory to the degree that NDS will not be a leader. In fact, Active Directory will see it's growth in numbers coming from the current NT 4.0 shops moving from the domain model into the "new" domain model with the fancy clothes (aptly called Active Directory). I don't see eroding NDS numbers at all. In fact, I think Novell will be able to ADD new NDS users in the face of Active Directory's push into this important market especially in the near future as some companies weigh the FACTS in testing labs of their own and make decisions based on BUSINESS NEEDS not some trip a CIO took with his wife (or other partner) at the expense of MSFT... We all agree that applications will drive the Directory beyond the Corporate Network. Novell's continuing growth will hinge on their ability to market i-Chain and develop solutions based on the combination of e-Directory, i-Chain, DigitalMe, WebSphere and NetWare 5.1. Active Directory will not bite into NDS numbers or marketshare, IMHO it can't compete in that fashion. It will draw numbers and marketshare from non-NDS users at first and only with some rather revolutionary applications or solutions can it begin to make a dent in NDS marketshare. Once MSFT can claim equal numbers of users as NDS they will SPIN THAT INFORMATION AS SUCCESS in the "War of the Directories". Novell can not let that happen....they must speak out! Remember, there are about 160 million desktops using a MSFT OS -- MSFT is betting on getting THOSE USERS into Active Directory (of course not by choice but by design). Currently there's about 55 Million NDS users without the benefit of a desktop OS pushing its numbers. These 55 million users were won over based on the merits of NDS (and other apps like ZENworks). I don't see them leaving. Of course those number pit Novell in a somewhat uphill struggle but hey - that's only one way to read those numbers. I believe the 160 million desktops minus 55 million current NDS users leaves about 105 Million users to win over. That market is NOT an automatic for MSFT....it's actually a "greener pasture" for Novell. <hopping off the soap box> Peter J Strifas

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