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Biotech / Medical : VISX
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To: mts362 who wrote (1626)2/22/2000 6:12:00 PM
From: MGV  Read Replies (2) of 1754
 
The forecast for procedure volume in 2000 was about 1.5 Million. VISX is estimated to hold a 70-80% market share. That would amount to 1.0 to 1.2M procedures in 2000. If procedure volume accelerates by 50% and VISX moved from 70% share to 75% share, the procedure revenue would fall by about 35%. Add incremental service and laser sale revenue and the shortfall is less.

So, say they go from $2.00 to $1.20. At $22 they are selling at 18x forward in a market that is growing north of 50%. That is the point.
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