Pat: Please step back from the ledge, take a deep breath, and count to ten slowly. I don't think this is a risk you want to take. You have already proven (to me anyway) first with AMTX and then later with CMTO that you already know one key to successful investing is buying stock in solid, well run companies with great products. CMTO will have its day in the sun. In fact, it's doing just fine if you ask me! As for shorting a company that has had a run up like TERN, you might get lucky and time things right at the peak. Or, you might not and lose a bundle. It's gambling, not investing. If you are serious, the "rule of thumb" I have read in this situation is to wait for a big gap down on decidedly bad news that breaks well through the current upward trendline connecting the past 2 or 3 troughs. In this case, that would mean TERN would have to plunge south of 160 before "investing" on the short side would be viewed as having a high probability of being a profitable move. Granted, you would miss out on most of "fun", but this is by far a safer play.
ps I have never shorted a stock before either. And, TERN's big run up is fine with me. Most likely, all the hoopla will bring additional investors into cable modem companies and many will perceive CMTO to have the better value/price, benefiting us CMTO investors. I worry that a nose dive by TERN will have the opposite effect and drag CMTO down along with it! |
