0.43 ADCT share for every 1.00 PAIR share valued at $1.6 billion. PAIR was the early and the dominant xDSL player with its HDSL/HDSL2 (TI equivalent) product line being used by a 1.7 million global subscriber base. The Chairman of Broadcom is a PAIR alum.
thestreet.com
Here's an interesting angle. ORCT is the exclusive supplier to GTE which is being merged with Bell Atlantic so this flashback is interesting especially since that Merrill Lynch report indicated that BA is planning to increase its ADSL business 10x in the first half of this year alone.
One of the largest setbacks for PairGain was the late 1998 loss of an exclusive contract with Bell Atlantic for DSL services and technology. Rival DSL company Adtran eventually won the Bell Atlantic contract, but not before the companies slashed prices by about 30% in a bidding war
ORCT's deal with Madrid's Radiotronica is expected to bring in $3 billion in revenues over the next 7 years based on a reasonable 20% projected share of the Latin America market. ORCT's deal with Fujitsu should give them at least a healthy piece of the action of the still highly protected Japanese market where they are driving fiber to the curb and to buildings. Japan is still the odds on favorite to have the first major deployment of both versions of VDSL.
China, which has the world's second largest fixed line network is next. 90 million relatively new phone lines alonside 80 million cable lines should provide a very competitive environment (and promising market for VDSL) once they decide on how to deregulate China Telecom with the sustainable debt and equity structures.
At this point, ORCT looks a cinch to at least double or triple its revenue base this year from the previous 200,000 lines/year level. Anyway, for future reference, I'm excerpting the RBOC supply process as detailed in the last PAIR 10K. Of the 4 major global contracts available -- BA, SBC, DT and GTE -- SBC still seems to be up for grabs although, I wonder if the Latin America connection will also bring in some contracts for ORCT.
PUBLIC NETWORKS
The public network market consists of the five RBOCs and their local telephone company affiliates, as well as independent telephone companies, CLECs, ISPs and international carriers.
RBOCS. Prior to selling products in volume to a local telephone company affiliated with an RBOC, a vendor must first receive approval of our product from the RBOC. Although the approval process for a new product varies somewhat among the five RBOCs, the process generally consists of the following three phases:
o LABORATORY EVALUATION. The product's functions and performance are tested against all relevant industry standards. This process can take from two weeks to three months, or longer, depending on a variety of factors.
o FIELD TRIAL. A number of actual telephone lines are equipped with the product for live operation in a field trial lasting from three weeks to three months, or longer. These field trials are for evaluating performance,
assessing the ease of installation and establishing troubleshooting procedures. The RBOCs grant conditional approval upon successful completion of a new product'sfield trial, enabling field personnel to order limited quantities of the product under one-time approvals.
o FINAL APPROVAL AND CONTRACT. Prior to final approval, which may take from one to four months, or longer, the RBOC develops and implements a variety of procedures that cover ordering, stocking, installation, maintenance, returns and all other activities associated with use of the product.
All five U.S. RBOCs and Bell Canada have approved ourHiGain products. In addition, several carriers have approved our subscriber carrier systems: one RBOC and Bell Canada have approved our PG-2 system, four RBOCs have approved the PG-Flex system and one RBOC has approved the PG-Plus system. Sales in the aggregate to local telephone companies affiliated with the five RBOCs accounted for approximately 55% of our total revenues in 1998.
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