Ah, if only wishing could make it so! On a key reversal day for the market as a whole, with huge upward momentum, this stock manages to eke out a 50 cent gain? Let's face it, the stock's stuck in a trading range and trending downward until there's some good news to pull it out of this tailspin. And we're not likely to get any.
The judge might as well have been sitting at the government's table during the trial, and he's made it abundantly clear that he's going to find MSFT guilty as charged. Moreover, he's virtually certain to call for a harsh penalty such as a break-up. The DOJ knows it and has no incentive to settle for less. In fact if they can't get a break-up with this hanging judge they're going to look like losers and history will forget their beloved trial of the century straight away. Microsoft for its part has steadfastly maintained that they won't accept a break-up, thus virtually guaranteeing no settlement.
What this means is a one-two punch from JJ to be delivered over the next two months. First a guilty verdict and then capital punishment. I think the probability that all this could happen is factored into the stock price, but not the certainty of it. Once the headlines appear, I would be surprised if the stock doesn't get spanked again. And again.
After all that, the long appeals process begins and perhaps the focus will shift, temporarily, back to the earnings story. Perhaps then we'll see PMSW's rally to 140, though I'm skeptical (about the target, not the rally).
My portfolio rose over $100K today, no thanks to softee. As you know I've been slowly reallocating my portfolio towards more profitable holdings. This isn't a wake-up call, it's an air-raid siren.
Just an opinion, not investment advice. As usual, I hope I'm wrong. |
