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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment-Sell when they're singing in the streets
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To: Pink Minion who wrote (2)2/23/2000 5:47:00 PM
From: geoffrey Wren  Read Replies (1) of 276
 
Perversely, perhaps a clue to sell will be when this thread has a lot of people posting on it (a lot of interest in the subject).

My first thought on the subject is the old axiom that generals are always ready to fight the last war. I am sure that many of the current investors in tech were in tech in 1997-1998, when we got reamed. A lot of us maybe have said: I will not hold all the way down again . . . . And maybe we will sell way too early to avoid that risk.

Analytically we know that the research has shown that market timing is virtually impossible. And long term, technology is where the action is for a long time to come.

And who is to say that the techs are going to crash here in the near future? The internet is going to grow greatly. The wireless band is going to grow greatly. Biotechs (or at least some of them) are going to grow greatly with the mapping of the human genome and advanced gene testing techniques.

I am less enthusiastic about the semi-equipment stocks than I used to be. It seems to me like they are getting to fair value. I'm looking more at the high margin specialist chips like PSEM, GNSS, HIFN, and POWI. Among the equips I have COHU, COHR, NANO, ZIGO, SMTL. They have all moved up nicely, and I have lightened up a bit on COHU, and sold half my NANO on the way up.

For the time being, chip equipments is still as a sector my second largest holding. But I did recently sell enough to pay off my margin debt . . . .

That's all for now.
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