Semi Equipment-Sell when they're singing in the streets Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment-Sell when they're singing in the streets

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To: Pink Minion who wrote ()	2/23/2000 7:38:00 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) of 276

Some Ideas: The up cycle started started in 2000 according the NVLS's Hill and he initially stated it would extend through 2002 (3 years). Others believe it will extend through 2004. I have attempted to use 2000 and 2001 company earnings forecasts and industry (SEMI) sales forecasts out to 2004 to estimate the peak earnings for the cycle for the companies I own. The previous cycle saw peak prices ~ 20 times peak earnings and with an ~ 1 year lead time. I believe the market will value these companies at a level which discounts optimistic peak earnings times a reasonable multiple this year, 2 to 4 years before the cycle end. I have my target numbers, but I will withhold them until others have an opportunity to discus my ideas and to present their numbers.

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