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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 681.43+1.6%4:00 PM EST

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To: Jerry Olson who wrote (41145)2/23/2000 10:19:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum  Read Replies (1) of 99985
 
OJ, this is one indicator i won't discard so quickly...the longer extreme readings persist, the more sobering the subsequent correction will be.
you have to look at the context as well....virtually all sectors ex tech are collapsing. that should induce at least some bearishness. but no, everybody's mesmerized by the NAZ.
i for one take this seriously...
please don't make the mistake to take my skepticism as perma bearishness. i've been playing real rockets lately on the otc BB...
but i see signs of sentiment indicators getting to fresh extremes along with the NAZ since the beginning of the year.
i believe a giant bull trap is being built.
these indicators are not telling us we will reverse to-morrow. but they're saying time is getting short.
note that the p/c ratios are not the only positioning measures that are off the charts here - the Rydex ratios are as well.
needless to say, i take a dim view of the new era rationalizations.
however, this is not to say that i deny that indeed important changes are happening in the economy and that exciting stuff is happening. i merely don't believe that the valuations accorded the new era stocks are sustainable.

regards,

hb
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