Bill Wexler's Dog Pound Message Board

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Non-Tech : Bill Wexler's Dog Pound

REFR 1.700

+4.7%

3:53 PM EST

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To: Hank who wrote (6846)	2/23/2000 10:55:00 PM
From: DanZ	Read Replies (2) of 10293

Citadel sold some GUMM during the rally to 35 and this could have accounted for some of the supply on the market. They are now paid completely off with very little dilution and their shares have all been sold. The market absorbed their supply with a minor correction and the stock has now based and is ready to resume the rally (IMO). Any pressure that Citadel put on the stock had nothing to do with the future fundamentals of the company, which is why I think that the stock is a good buy into the weakness that they might have caused. In general, I don't think that institutions buy stocks for a quick trade. Most of them buy based on fundamental analysis and only sell when the fundamentals change or when they think that the valuation is too far ahead of the future fundamentals. There's a reason why the institutional sponsorship has increased five straight quarters. They are obviously impressed with ten consecutive quarterly increases in revenue comparisons, a stronger balance sheet with a nice wad of cash and no debt, the company's first profitable quarter in several years, nicotine gum production in Q3 or Q4, other new products under development, patent protection for Zicam, a wide open world-wide market for Zicam, and a marginal profit that will make today's stock price look cheap in the not too distant future. Of course the institutional holdings are still relatively small, but the trend is what is important. Do you expect the institutional holdings to go from 0% to 50% in one quarter? If I was short, I'd be concerned about the trend in institutional buying. The institutions sold a measly 500 shares last quarter and that was probably an individual that owned stock through a bank (not really an institution holding). They are quickly buying up more of the already small float and you might be on the wrong side of a massive short squeeze in the not too distant future.

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