UK Ftse's and US Comp's, DOW relationship in rising interest rate environment is the best model one can look at. That is how this market in US is going to act, we have seen consistent rise in rates in UK and market has taken a good correction in stride same will be in US, if I was AG I should have been quite content to see DOW testing 10100 or its nearabout a level of last March, capping expectation is an art this Chairman knows better than anyone else in the town.
I have always highlighted that we will see his tone firmer or lighter depending on his ability to move the markets, 17th he was hawkish yesterday he had olive branch in his hand, this strange mix of carrot and stick forms the core of his strategy, as I have repeatedly pointed out he does not let market run too much ahead of earnings, if DOW is at last year level the one year momentous earnings have all been digested without considerable improvement in the bell weather indicator. Ofcourse argument can be made of Comp relentless run and that test of 50 days MA and 3850 test on NDX is a good sign, we make new highs clean out weaker hands and move on test 1382 resistance now that is the main obstacle, as far we have this strong economy and benign inflationary pressures we may see that few hikes can be digested by the market without catastrphic consequences, we can see as low as 9800 or 1230 area as a result but if NDX stays bid those margin calls based on which avalanche of selling has to materialise may not activate..
Hi to every one and see you next time I come on the thread..
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