w's wireless outlook
Time frame - two years
Summary - no 3G, wireless services will be provided by current, albeit augmented technologies (GSM, CDMA).
Justification
Standards and IPR wrangling will delay design and deployment of true 3G systems. There will also be procrastination by equipment manufacturers and network operators, who want to maximise the profit on their current investment.
In Europe, GSM rules, enhanced with GPRS and WAP.
In the US, TDMA (IS-136) will evolve into something much closer to GSM, and support full Short Message Services and SIM cards. GPRS and WAP will support data services.
IS-95 will morph into 1xrtt, supported by HDR. WAP may well be offered , as mean spirited network operators keep the lid on high data rates.
In the far east, Japan will be in dissarray, with a number of different TDMA based and CDMA based networks cutting each others throats. The Koreans may step in and clean up with Korean sourced CDMA equipment (both handsets and infrastructure.)
China will go GSM (I'll duck at this point)
Why?
1. China wants indigenous sourcing for handsets and infrastructure.
GSM is easier to do than CDMA in this regard (as NOK can testify to)
2. CDMA requires very careful network planning. Network providers can be much more careless with GSM
3. GSM is cheaper
4. GSM doesn't require GPS.
All the above points are moot IF QCOM can successfully lobby the US government to support the Chinese with CDMA adoption. This is quite possible, as this is an election year.
Best stocks?
INTC - they will shift from PC to communications, swallowing companies like LSI and CNXT.
CNXT - possible takeover candidate next year, possibly by INTC
Samsung - will challenge NOK as a world leader in handsets
ARMHY - everyone, including INTC uses their core designs
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