Claude, this issue of share ownership comes up as speculation often so I called Jim Graham at JDX/ITE at 5:00 pm. and put it to him. He said that we own a total of 222,000 shares of medsite.com. The extra 22,000 shares were an additional purchase we made to keep our ownership at a constant level. The shares are convertible 1 for 1. That being the case, we now know we paid $ 5 per share by simple arithmetic comparing our investment vs. the shares we own. So this begs the question: What will these shares be worth after the IPO?
Rob Davis in his post layed it out quite well. No one knows until the IPO issues and trades in about 6-8 weeks? Let's try to do some logical speculation and see if we can come up with a number that might be reasonable.
I went back and checked Neoformas (NEOF) IPO of about 5 weeks ago to see what happened there.
siliconinvestor.com
They sell to the medical institutions larger medical items so are VERY roughly in Medsites field. They IPO'd at $ 13 and proceeded on up to $78 and have settled to $ 58 recently. They now have a market cap of 3 1/4 billion. Now, are you ready for this......when they IPO'd they had revenue (not earnings)of $ 464,000 per year. Yes, $ 464,000....sheesh.
So, lets look at Medsite.com, revenues of $ 8,900,000 in 1999 and a much broader product base than NEOF. It does not seem unreasonable to assume that if Medsite IPOs at $ 13 that they could trade from a dismal number say $ 25 to a satisfactory number, say $ 100. Given that their underwriters are Credit Suisse Boston, Bear, Stearns and Co and E*Offering I'd be inclined to think the high end is conservatively probable. However for the sake of argument lets look at the range. (being $ 25 and $ 100 )This means that the offering if it only achieves $ 25 then our $5 per share becomes $25 per share OR if the offering achieves $ 100 then our $5 per share becomes $ 100 per share. This range gives us potential multiples of 400% to % 1900 on our investment or in absolute dollars PROFIT of from $4,440,000 to $ 21,090,000. Not bad for a 7 month investment of $1,110,000.
So when the Medsite IPO begins to trade, take the per share price and deduct $ 5 and multiply times 222,000 and thats JDX/ITE net profit position.
I wonder what that sexy "Elastic Networks" would do?
Claude, I know these were baby steps for you in the above exercise but I just wanted to make it very clear for everyone, particularily for myself. <g>
OT: P.S. Claude, I would appreciate your giving me your thoughts on FL by PM or on the FL thread.
Regards
C |
