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Strategies & Market Trends : Options
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To: steve mamus who wrote (3546)2/25/2000 1:27:00 AM
From: Uncertain Walker  Read Replies (2) of 8096
 
OT

Re: "The Chinese are irrational enough that I would take an educated guess and say that I expect the chances of armed conflict in the next 24 months to be more then 50%".

The probability of armed conflict between US and China is close to zero in the next 10 years. It would be naive to think the Dow would drop just 1000-2000 points, if, God forbid, such a conflict ever erupted. Cooler and wise heads on both sides will not allow this to happen. If one thinks China is another Iraq or Yugoslavia, he is a bit naive then.

The bottom line is that Taiwan will not declare independence and cross-strait relationship will be warming up post election in Taiwan (in March). Right now, the Chinese are engaging in war of words, not missiles. They are trying to have more bargaining chips with Taiwan.
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