Hi Rarebird,
>>At what point on the Dow and S@P do you say that the cycle has changed from Bullish to Bearish?<<
I don't know at what point a market changes from a bull market to a bear market... I like to avoid those kinds of diagnostic labels...<g> I was only saying that the tape reads like a bear market... bear markets actually begin at the top, where ever that may be, so I think that market behavior at any level could determine the bull/bear nature of the market depending on the market action at the time.....
>>Wouldn't a Dow close below the July 98 high of 9314 be a Bear Market signal?<<
I think by the time we get down to that level, I'll be looking for a place to buy provided that the market behaves accordingly... otherwise, I'll wait for a better price... 8500? 7500?
>>How did you arrive at Dow 9200?<<
9200 for the DOW is a general area between 9000 and 9400... this range is based on looking at the complete chart pattern for the DOW over the past two years...
>>I was under the impression that the average retracement in a Bull Cycle is approximately 50%.<<
50% is a good retracement, but from what point do we begin the counting? I'd rather look for areas of support and resistance and then watch what the market does at those areas... for example: right now, we're at a major support level, but we certainly didn't rally today... that's the key, if we rallied today, then we would have seen a successful test of a major support level... but, since we broke that level, this level will now become resistance as the market rallies from a lower level... I don't think in terms of percentages generally for these reasons.....
I hope I've answered all your questions clearly... if not, please let me know.....<g>
My Best...
GZ |
