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Technology Stocks : MRV Communications (MRVC) opinions?
MRVC 9.975-0.1%Aug 15 5:00 PM EST

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To: Dan Spillane who wrote (3168)4/30/1997 2:21:00 AM
From: mike wheaton   of 42804
 
Due to the technology and market potential for gigaEth
it is easy to become overly optimistic on MRV during a
networking downward spiral. I have learned the hard
way not to fight the market.

What numbers will it take to buck this trend??

Last q's #s were amazing by any standards and we
had a drop from ~30 on anouncement day (2/10 the qly high)
to 21.5 today. ( pre-ann. day 4/28 ~18 qly low ).

Approx #'s ( all % Yrly rates -- pre Fib charge )
EPS. Q (132%)
Yr (100%)

Rev Q (148%)
Yr (125%)

Inc Q (185%)
Yr (134%)

I agree with the concepts -- cheaper 100M NICs leads to
higher switches sales, a leading gig vender, the directIP patent,
packetbust tech. (IEEE submission), GigaFrame arch potential,
and of course the overhyped Dec and Japan deals! All these
ideas have been beaten to death, and the stock price has
dropped 30%! What do you belive it will take get some respect!!!

I do not buy into the name/exposure problem!!!
Any networking analyst who is worth a dime would
use this to their advantage over people who do
not spend 100% of their time focused on Networking
valuations!

Will the following numbers ( Note these are pipe-dreams
considering the "networking slump" ) be enough to provide
us with a way to recap some of our losses over a Q that
should have straight up considering last Q's numbers.

1)Revenues
Last Q was around 31M
This Q looking for 37M++

2)EPS
Last Q was (pre FIB expense) .16
This Q looking for .18 ( .20 -.02 for the fib charge )

What do you think it will take!!!

By the way 96 q1 numbers are
rev 15M
eps .09
forward pe is < 25

mike
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