There's always the chance of a decline, but the U.S. economy seems basically sound, which means there's lots of 401-K money entering the market each month. The rest of the world doesn't seem to be doing too badly, either, and some of that money probably finds its way into the U.S. markets.
I can't decide whether I expect April 15 to be a positive (new IRA money) or negative (sales to pay taxes) net effect.
It wouldn't surprise me if there's still a lot of buying power on the sidelines left over from Y2K fears. I know I moved our portfolio into a very conservative (unleveraged) stance at the end of last year, and surely I'm not alone in that.
Until presented with strong evidence otherwise, members of both parties will assume their candidate(s) will win, and that could contribute some optimism to the markets.
I just finished reading Nick Leeson's book (Rogue Trader) about the demise of Barings Bank. That's the kind of thing that could come out of the blue and hurt us, but there's no way to predict it. Didn't somebody say, "It's not timing the market so much as time in the market?"
The Fed must realize it's squeezing the life out of a big chunk of the market (as evidenced by the Dow), so I suspect it will tread a little more lightly going forward. Next week's employment figures should be interesting.
Sun is already about 2/3 of the way through another quarter, and my guess is it'll be a good one; I think they're in the right place with the right products at the right time. We'll have the usual choppiness around the end of the month, and again when options expire, but the trend still seems to be with us.
BWDIK. I've been wrong before, and will undoubtedly be wrong again.
JMHO, and not investment advice. |
