[Chat..Lucent/Cisco]
Will,
<<Hi Bob, I don't see Lucent and Amati happening. I have researched the history of Lucent/Paradyne/Globespan. My guess is that Lucent will pair up with Paradyne or some other CAP vendor. Maybe Bill C. can help you with some further insights in this area. Also, Alcatel may be turned off by the Siemans agreement (european competitors).
I appreciate the balance you keep in your posts. I would love to own Amati if they partnered with Cisco. What will Cisco do in ADSL? Proprietary? Partner? Takeover? Soundview analysts have suggested a possible Cisco/Microsoft/GTE/Westell network. Keeping my eye on Microsoft and Cisco.>>
Good Questions.
Lucent's the unknown. I realize their history with Pardayne and their
relationship with Bay ... so it's certainly possible a CAP offering
may be in the works. But at the same time, Lucent (and Bell Labs)
have to be extremely aware of DMT for high bandwidth applications. It
will be interesting.
On Cisco, due to the advent of the internet/intranets ...IP has
become the protocol of the future (not that others are going away).
The trend in corporate america is intranet, intranet, intranet.
Speed is number one. A big concern was/is that connectivity would
slow networkspeed (routing of packets). Hubs,routers and switches are colapsing in functionality. A company who integrates functionality
and it's advantages will have an advantage in product offerings.
This is the tricky part for me. Internet traffic is IP. Cisco routers
(and others) support IP. Where would they go? To the desktop? We saw
Intel collapse the NIC (PC network interface card) to a chip on a
motherboard and Intel has introduced a $100/port 10/100baseT Hub. I
think the Cisco Fortune article (with IBM's CEO on the cover) sums
it up...they want to play in each others market...including Micorsoft. Microsoft is incorporating routing into their NT platform. It is quite
fractured today if you think about it. Customers want one vendor to
support end-to-end network solutions and Cisco (the software king)
and others really have no choice... the market wants it... and their
competitors (Intel $5 billion in cash) are well funded for expansion
into their "bread & butter".
On takeovers: Cisco, Intel and others like Microsoft are cash cows
and could probably buyout Amati. We know that's Cisco MO. Amati already has lisc. agreements in place with others. A takeover can't
change that ... the "cat's out of the bag" , so to speak.
Microsoft vs. Cisco....a MUST read. The final line. Who wins? Answer,
whoever gets there first!
nwfusion.com|33xb/1WbUegO1/1EWeEtlC9/teCE1D.9kMy3x361WbUegO1xxc6/Uelxd/iii/zUpygC/1WbUegO1/VElgkv/VElgkvxd3IeEtlC9xS3hxdtdEpCxf3cdchs2oNF0wo,ltvMO1DD9gleC9,s2oNz022in,x3S3
I would be very interested in hearing what others think.
Bob |
