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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: LindyBill who wrote (18829)2/26/2000 6:47:00 PM
From: the hube  Read Replies (3) of 54805
 
ELON
>>I will buy Monday, and make it my #2 position behind Q

If you do, I would recommend that you watch it very carefully. While I think in the current market it has plenty of potential to go to 200 or so in the very short term (like next week) it could also go down just as quickly. The dynamics of the current market seem to reward a good story far more than actual performance, with a subsequent tailing off as the story looses its newness.

The gorilla game is about above average performance with below average risk. Companies announce alliances all the time, it is only over a period of time that these alliances (or design wins, as they are sometimes called) turn into actual revenues. Many things that appear to be sure fire in the trial phase never actually turn into anything--think of the interactive TV trials of a few years ago, for example. The market that ELON is in is still a couple of years away from being reality. Remember, their latest 9 month revenues (through 9/30) are only $28 million.

IMO, ELON represents a wonderful trading opportunity, but it is WAY too early to be talking about it as a gorilla. If you had to hold for the next five years with no possibility of trading, I suspect you would be very comfortable with QCOM, but I'm not sure you would feel the same way with ELON.
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