Found this post on the Raging Bull threads. Talk about doing your homework! I hope this person is HALF correct in his projections:
By: MoneyLust
Reply To: None Saturday, 26 Feb 2000 at 5:09 PM EST
Post # of 932
Price Target Analysis
Here are revenue and profit projections from WAMEXs Private Placement Executive Summary and stock price projections based on those numbers:
all dollar figures are in $Millions
Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5
Revenues 75 213 330 457 583
Expenses 35 91 174 266 353
EBIT 41 123 155 190 230
Net Profit 27 81 103 126 152
Price Target: 27M profit year 1 x 40 P/E (growth company multiple) = $ 1.1 Billion company / 11 million shares outstanding = $122 stock by year 1. Here is a price analysis over time:
all dollar figures are in $millions except price of stock
Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5
Net Profit 27 81 103 126 152
Market Cap* 1,350 4,050 5,150 6,300 7,600
Price of Stock** $122 $370 $470 $570 $690
* using a P/E ratio of 50 (the market most likely will pay a higher ratio as a premium in the first 2/3 years)
Note: Schwab is trading at 55 P/E though its PEG is flat, which will not be the case for WAMX
** based on 11 million shares outstanding
How many customers does WAMEX have to sign up to get those revenue and profit figures? To achieve these revenue figures WAMX believes it has to reach the following market share targets:
Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5
Total individuals 14.3K 74.4K 176.5K 304.6K 461.78K
Mkt Share 1% 3.4% 5.2% 5.6% 6.2%
WAMEX Advantages
< 24/7 day a week active trading and execution via internet, phone, or fax
< fastest trade execution at the lowest cost in the world
< the ability to trade any registered security in the world without a broker
< the ability to convert any currencies and execute stock transactions simultaneously
< translation in 9 languages
< T+0 trades - in most cases instant settlement, confirmation and clearing with the guarantee of delivery and cash transfer
< Easy to use, Easy to understand interface
< Direct interaction between individual investors and institutions
< Unparalleled order management systems by VELOCITY
< Communication ability between members via WAMEX message system
< Up-to-date REALTIME investment information, charts, graphs, quotes
< Move from Direct ATS trading to order routing for traditional open market execution
< Minimized standards for membership - Easy to Join/Easy to Maintain
Website
wamex.com
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