My point is that, at $40 million in revenue, the product is not yet mainstream in a large market. It may very well be the leader, or even the only player in building automation, but I just don't see it yet as a mass market, as measured by the revenues. I, for one, am unlikely to have my home fully automated for at least the next year or two, and I feel that I will probably be ahead of the curve. A friend is having a new home built, and many of the features we are talking about are not yet offered by his builder.
As I understand it, they are currently the leader in control networks that are not connected to the internet. Their hope is to also become the leader in controls that are connected to the internet, as it is likely that at some time in the future, nearly everything will be connected. I just think it will take longer than most people think before everything is connected, and that there are still lots of ways for some company other than ELON to become the ultimate winner.
For example, the big news that moved the stock last week is that ELON's iLON IP 1000 server is certified under CSCO's netWorks program. There is nothing to prevent CSCO from certifying another company's product under the same program, even if it performs essentially the same function as Echelon's--and the longer the time until that market enters a tornado, the more possibilities there are for it to happen.
I'm not saying that ELON won't turn into a gorilla. I'm just saying that IMO only, it is still too early to treat it as if it already is one. |
