Mike M: contrarian indicator?
Mike,
I never thought of paying much attention to people like Bill Wexler to see if they were wrong about most things, not just stocks I invest in. Not worth the effort to analyze and I have my own ways to choose stocks to go long in and I do darn well.
But, I have noticed that betting against an analyst like Vik Grover is almost a sure thing. He still has IDTC as a strong sell with a target of $8 per share. How can he have any credibility? Will he upgrade to $9 when it hits $50 this week or wait until it hits $100 later?
I do believe money can be made by going short on selected stocks at points in their cycle, but have no interest in doing that kind of thing. But, all investing should be done carefully with serious analysis of the company involved. And, when you make a mistake, get out and learn from it to minimize repeating the mistake. I lost a little on CLX, and got out. Why be stubborn. I put the money elsewhere where it has grown nicely.
Yet, I submit I warned Wexler in a friendly manner to stop shorting REFR since his understanding of the stock was flawed and since he now had folks like me on the other side that outclassed him. For some reason, I got mocked! :-) And, I visit now and then to remind him, and I now get ignored. Mocking does not work on me, I get even. I just bought ever more REFR and helped move the stock higher. And, by now, I think Wexler has reason to believe I am a serious investor who is right far more often than wrong and that I adjust.
So, he could have covered at 12 and 14 and on up. He decided to do what you described, double down. I submit that there is nothing inherently wrong with shorting REFR at 39 and covering at 35, as he claims. But, this does not really get back the shares he still has not redeemed since 11. He could have redeemed those at 20 or earlier, and then still had the chance to play his short games later. Instead, his losses keep mounting as REFR inexorably ratchets upward and I doubt he gets to cover more than 15-25% lower from each new high.
AND, as I keep saying, news is coming. And, with IDTC up 21% this week, and probably a higher percent next week, I suggest he consider if shorting more this week at any price is a good idea. I have buying power out the wazoo and I can choose to buy REFR or other things. But, I will damn well defend any stock I have already invested heavily in. So, people like Wexler should consider covering in the first half hour on Monday before I decide what I want to do. :-)
Good luck with your "contrarian" style of investing. |
