Some of the newest Biotech drugs sell for over $10,000 per year.
In general, many of them offer barely measureable advantages over conventional therapy, and usually at 5 to 50 times the cost. The infinitesmal improvement of TPA over Streptokinase, the antiplatelet drugs compared to aspirin come to mind.
Tamoxifen is hailed as a breakthrough in breast cancer prevention. But when you study the fine print, you have to treat 45 women for 5 years to prevent 1 case of breast cancer, for a monetary cost of $312,000, not to mention the side effects of deep vein thrombosis, pulmonary embolus, endometrial cancer, and the 24% discontinuation rate due to side effects. These are just a few examples to illustrate my point.
I am not opposed to risky momentum investments--AMZN made a fortune for me, but as a part-time biotech consultant and a part-time physician, I just can't see biotech as more than a cyclical move.
Suppose you finish sequencing the genome. In 10 to 15 years you might possibly have products to market, if you are lucky, given the complexity, which managed care will fight tooth and nail over reimbursement. That is longer than my attention span as an investor
BTW, Nice to hear from you, Prissy.
Tom |
